Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Race for the Prize 11/14/07

My last "Race for the Prize" column was over a month ago and a lot has changed in the awards race n that time. First and foremost, There Will Be Blood has finally been seen, and despite tons of acclaim, nearly every critic can't help but reinforce that PT Anderson's latest is a genuine art film - and a deeply disturbing and dark art film at that. As a result, it's Best Picture and Director shots have all but vanished. Daniel Day Lewis still seems like a sure thing to grab a nod, and perhaps a win, but outside of that you are probably looking at a screenplay nod and some scattered tech nods. Another development: Lions for Lambs, Reservation Road and Things We Lost in the Fire have all bombed, and although none were looking too great for Oscars to begin with, they are all officially out of the running.

On the other side of that same equation is American Gangster, which - despite it's "good not great" reviews - has made bank, and the Academy loves to reward at least one true financial success (which when it's all said and done could actually be 3:10 to Yuma). Still no word on the ever elusive Charlie Wilson's War though, but all signs to point to a rather nice showing for the film. Atonement remains the front runner for the simple fact that is soooo Academy friendly - I don't think I could imagine a film more in line with the Oscar mentality than Joe Wright's supposedly quite moving epic. It's finally got competition though, in the form of No Country for Old Men, which is by some distance the best reviewed film of the year and is in the process of racking up huge BO numbers. I don't see it missing in very many categories. There is also some movement in the acting categories (especially Supporting Actress), but that is pretty self explanatory. Once the Charlie Wilson reviews start to surface, I'll reassess.

Best Picture:

1. Atonement
2. No Country for Old Men
3. Charlie Wilson's War
5. Into the Wild

Five On the Fringe:
American Gangster
Sweeney Todd
The Kite Runner
3:10 to Yuma
The Diving Bell and Butterfly

Dropped Out:
There Will Be Blood

Best Director:
1. Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
2. Joe Wright - Atonement
3. Mike Nichols - Charlie Wilson's War
4. Sean Penn - Into the Wild
5. Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and Butterfly

Five of the Fringe:
Sydney Lumet - Before the Devil Knows Your Dead
Ridley Scott - American Gangster
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Jason Reitman - Juno
Marc Forster - The Kite Runner

Dropped Out:
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Best Actor:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
2. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
3. James McAvoy - Atonement
4. Denzel Washington - American Gangster
5. Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War

Five on the Fringe:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages or Before the Devil Knows Your Dead
Emile Hirsche - Into the Wild
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortenson - Eastern Promises
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah

Best Actress:
1. Ellen Page - Juno
2. Julie Christie - Away from Her
3. Laura Linney - The Savages
4. Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
5. Keira Knightly - Atonement

Five on the Fringe:
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Nicole Kidman - Margot at the Wedding
Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd
Jodie Foster - The Brave One
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Dropped Out:
Halle Berry - Things We Lost in the Fire

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
2. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
3. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
5. Phillip Boscoe - The Savages

Five on the Fringe:
Max Von Sydow - The Diving Bell and Butterfly
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
John Travolta - Hairspray
Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood
Ethan Hawke - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Dropped out:
Benicio Del Toro - Things We Lost in the Fire
Russell Crowe - American Gangster

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
2. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
3. Marisa Tomei - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
4. Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh - Margot at the Wedding

Five on the Fringe:
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
Samantha Morton - Control
Kelly Macdonald - No Country for Old Men
Romola Garai - Atonement

Dropped Out:
Abbie Cornish - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Meryl Streep - Lions for Lambs
Susan Sarandon - In the Valley of Elah

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Juno
2. Michael Clayton
3. The Savages
4. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Five on the Fringe:
American Gangster
Eastern Promises
Margot at the Wedding
I'm Not There

Dropped Out:
Things We Lost in the Fire

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. No Country for Old Men
2. Atonement
3. Charlie Wilson's War
4. Into the Wild
5. There Will Be Blood

Five on the Fringe:
The Diving Bell and Butterfly
The Kite Runner
Sweeney Todd
Gone Baby Gone
3:10 to Yuma

Dropped Out:
In the Valley of Elah (I guess it's an Original Screenplay)


bluesuzanne said...

Romola Garai deserves a nomination for Atonement more than words can express.

Stereo Sanctity said...

It is going to be interesting to see how many of the Atonement ladies get nominated. I can see two because it is such a thin category this year, but 3 is not happening. It has a really good shot at 4 acting nods all together though, and that is rare.