Race for the Prize 10/9/07

As I prepare for yet another vacation, I leave you with the latest "Race for the Prize" column, monitoring the years Oscar Race. Much has changed in the week or so since my last predictions, most notably the buzz for P.T. Anderson's There Will Be Blood. Reviews have begun to trickle in, with more than one critic comparing it Citizen f'n Kane. Such lofty comparisons could prove deadly, but as of right now, it registers as buzz. Into the Wild and Michael Clayton have all taken slight jumps as well, mostly on the acting side of things, but also in the writing categories. The wild card is still Charlie Wilson's War however, which is set to have it's trailer released tonight. No one knows a thing about it besides the impressive pedigree, which alone should keep it afloat until the critics weigh in. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Coen Brothers' No Country for Old Men, which along with There Will Be Blood, should end up the best reviewed film of the year. Will the Academy turn their heads at the violence? I think that The Departed proved that they could take it, but are they willing to let the brothers back into the fold? It reeks of a film that could pull the lone director nomination. And Kris Tapley at Incontention has been the first to mention Denzel Washington's directorial effort The Great Debaters as a contender. Could this be another Million Dollar Baby-esque last minute entry? I need to see some more solid buzz before I give it a spot, but it is worth noting.

Main Category Predictions as of 10/9/07

Best Picture:
1. Atonement
2. There Will Be Blood ↑
3. Charlie Wilson's War ↓
4. The Kite Runner ↑
5. Into the Wild ↑

Five On the Fringe:
Juno ↑
No Country for Old Men ↓
American Gangster ↓
Sweeney Todd
The Diving Bell and Butterfly NEW

Dropped Out:
Michael Clayton

Best Director:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood ↑
2. Joe Wright - Atonement ↓
3.Mike Nichols - Charlie Wilson's War ↓
4. Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men ↑
5. Sean Penn - Into the Wild ↑

Five of the Fringe:

Marc Forster - The Kite Runner ↑
Ridley Scott - American Gangster ↓
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd ↑
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and Butterfly NEW
Jason Reitman - Juno NEW

Dropped Out:
Andrew Dominik - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
David Cronenberg - Eastern Promises

Best Actor:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
2. Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War
3.James McAvoy - Atonement
4. Emile Hirsche - Into the Wild ↑
5. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd ↑

Five on the Fringe:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages or Before the Devil Knows Your Dead ↑
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah ↓
Denzel Washington - American Gangster ↓
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortenson - Eastern Promises

Best Actress:
1. Keira Knightley - Atonement
2. Ellen Page - Juno ↑
3. Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age ↓
4. Julie Christie - Away from Her ↓
5. Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose

Five on the Fringe:
Laura Linney - The Savages ↑
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart ↑
Halle Berry - Things We Lost in the Fire ↓
Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd NEW
Jodie Foster - The Brave One ↓

Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman - Margot at the Wedding

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
2. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
4. Phillip Boscoe - The Savages ↑
5. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton ↓

Five on the Fringe:
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford ↓
Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood
Russell Crowe - American Gangster
Max Von Sydow - The Diving Bell and Butterfly NEW
Benicio Del Toro - Things We Lost in the Fire

Dropped out:
Armin Mueller-Stahl - Eastern Promises

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
2. Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
3. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement ↑
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh - Margot at the Wedding ↑
5.Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone ↑

Five on the Fringe:
Abbie Cornish - Elzabeth: The Golden Age NEW
Romola Garai - Atonement ↑
Susan Sarandon - In the Valley of Elah ↓
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton ↑
Meryl Streep - Lions for Lambs NEW

Dropped Out:
Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd (now campaigning for lead actress)
Catherine Keener - Into the Wild

Best Original Screenplay:
1. The Savages
2. Juno
3. Once↑
4. I'm Not There ↓
5. Michael Clayton ↑

Five on the Fringe:
Ratatouille
Margot at the Wedding ↓
Eastern Promises ↑
Waitress ↑
Things We Lost in the Fire ↓

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Atonement ↑
2. There Will Be Blood ↑
3. No Country for Old Men ↓
4. Charlie Wilson's War ↑
5. The Kite Runner ↑

Five on the Fringe:
Into the Wild ↑
The Diving Bell and Butterfly ↑
In the Valley of Elah ↓
American Gangster ↓
Lust, Caution NEW

Dropped Out:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford